CRDO · Credo Technology Group

CRDO — Catalyst Calendar

Catalyst Criteria is MEASURED — it informs monitoring, never admission. As of 2026-07-29. No date in this file is invented. Every entry is either (a) filed and dated, or (b) explicitly marked ESTIMATED with the pattern it is estimated from. Credo has not published a fiscal-2027 earnings-date schedule; a fabricated date would be worse than an absent calendar.

Confirmed and dated (from filings)

Date Event Source Why it matters
2026-05-02 FY2026 fiscal year end 10-K crdo-20260502.htm Revenue $1,335.1m; the last fully reported period.
2026-06-01 Q4 / FY2026 results released; Q1 FY2027 guidance $465–475m issued 8-K Ex-99.1, acc. 0001628280-26-039474 Sets the sequential run-rate the implied path is tested against.
2026-06-15 FY2026 10-K filed acc. 0001628280-26-043303 Source of the customer-concentration tables, the $31.9m RPO and the DustPhotonics subsequent event.
May 2026 (day not disclosed) DustPhotonics acquisition closed — $770m cash + ~0.8m shares 10-K Note 16 Removes 53% of the net cash the screen used. Adds silicon photonics.
2026-05-28 CEO special PSU grant approved — six tranches, revenue $2.5bn → $7.5bn, stock $244.70 → $489.40 10-K Note 16 Management-revealed five-year forecast; used as the cross-check in Valuation §4.
2031-06-30 End of the CEO PSU five-year performance period 10-K Note 16 The terminal date of management's own stated ladder.

Estimated dates — marked as such

Credo has reported on a stable quarterly cadence for four years. The pattern, from filed 8-K dates:

Fiscal quarter FY2025 FY2026 Pattern
Q1 2024-09-04 2025-09-03 first week of September
Q2 2024-12-02 2025-12-01 first week of December
Q3 2025-03-04 2026-03-02 first week of March
Q4 / FY 2025-06-02 2026-06-01 first week of June
Estimated date Event Confidence
~2026-09-02 (ESTIMATED) Q1 FY2027 results. The decisive print. Pattern-based; not company-confirmed.
~2026-12-01 (ESTIMATED) Q2 FY2027 results Pattern-based.
~2027-03-01 (ESTIMATED) Q3 FY2027 results Pattern-based.
~2027-05-01 (ESTIMATED) FY2027 fiscal year end (Saturday nearest 30 April) Fiscal-calendar convention; FY2026 ended 2026-05-02.
~2027-06-07 (ESTIMATED) Q4 / FY2027 results — the ">$500m optical revenue in fiscal 2027" target is settled here Pattern-based.

Credo has also twice used intra-quarter 8-Ks to move the stock outside the earnings cadence — a preliminary revenue release on 2026-02-09 and the DustPhotonics announcement on 2026-04-13. Neither was scheduled. Unscheduled 8-Ks should be treated as a live, recurring catalyst class on this name, not an anomaly.

The one that decides it: Q1 FY2027, ~early September 2026

Everything material about this thesis is testable in a single print, roughly five weeks out.

What to read Guided / current Thesis intact if Thesis broken if
Revenue $465–475m guided (+7.6% sequential) ≥ $470m, and Q2 guided ≥ +7% sequential Below $465m, or Q2 guided flat-to-down
Sequential growth +7.4% (Q4 FY2026) Holds ≥7% or re-accelerates A fourth consecutive quarter sub-8% with no optical disclosure
Days of inventory 164 days, +16 sequentially Falls below 150 Above ~180
Optical revenue Target >$500m for FY2027; nothing disclosed to date Any disclosed figure tracking to $500m Target not repeated, deferred, or withdrawn
Customer concentration table (10-Q) Top-3 end customers 84% A fourth ≥10% customer appears A top-three customer steps below its FY2026 share
GAAP operating margin ~31.9% implied by guidance ≥ 30% Below 28% for two consecutive quarters
GAAP opex $167.6–171.6m guided (+19.2% sequential) Lands in range Overshoots without a revenue offset

Undated but live

Item Status
DustPhotonics contingent consideration — up to 2.8m shares and $31.6m cash on "achievement of certain financial milestones" Milestones and dates not disclosed. Payment would signal the optical ramp is landing; non-payment is equally informative and equally unobservable.
Optical revenue as a reported line item Credo has never disclosed an optical revenue figure. Whether it starts to is itself the signal.
Product launches / speed-grade transitions (1.6T, 3.2T NPO/CPO) No dated roadmap published. 1.6T has appeared in every quarterly release since 2023-05; 3.2T appears only in the DustPhotonics release.
Hyperscaler capex guidance from the end customers Customer identities are undisclosed, so this cannot be mapped to Credo's specific revenue. Directionally relevant, not attributable.
Analyst days / investor conferences No confirmed dates. None asserted.

Not on this calendar, deliberately